83. Departure Planning

We have checked out from Tonga but remain in the country. Hiding as illegal aliens. It feels quite safe though as we haven’t seen anything resembling the coast guard or any other officials for that matter. The only ones at this remote anchorage are other cruisers with the same legal status in Tonga. We are all enjoying a few final days of beach life as we wait for a weather window that will allow a safe passage to New Zealand. An eight or nine day crossing, in an area that generally only lends itself to forecasts stretching half that time. Low pressure systems follow highs that follow lows with short but regular intervals. This makes the wind direction fairly predictable but the strength of the wind is largely dependent on how high the highs are and how low the lows are. Something that apparently is very hard to predict before these systems have developed in the Tasman Sea and started moving northeast. And it is very important to get things right as conditions can get very rough on this passage. It was only a couple of weeks ago when a boat on passage from Fiji to New Zealand lost its mast and had to be abandoned. Unfortunately only two from a three man crew lived to tell the tale.

Fortunately there are chat forums, podcasts and weather gurus for hire that can help you get it right. There are also other cruisers in the same boat (figuratively speaking) that are only too keen to discuss potential departure dates. On boats that are likely to want to depart at roughly the same time. I guess there is a feeling of safety in numbers.

Leaving from Tonga, we also have the benefit of being able to stop at the Minerva Reef. An uninhabited atoll roughly a quarter of the way. It offers nothing else than depths that you can anchor in and reefs that act as a breakwater. A mid-ocean parking lot that I understand is already full of cruisers that I know. Cruisers that have been there for up to a week, barbecuing fish that they caught on the way and no doubt making sure that they don’t bring too much rum into New Zealand. Our plan (Daniel and I on Saoirse and my buddies on Traveller) is to leave for Minerva tomorrow and get there in two days (on Saturday). Hopefully this will make further weather forecasts a little more predictable. For now, we have our eyes on a potential departure from Minerva on Monday. But if the next high is too high, we may get stuck there for another week or so. Still a lot better than being caught out by a storm. Or a week in the office.